The spring of 2015 has come, but the warmth has not yet arrived. Under the new economic normal, many agricultural enterprises have felt the chill, but what you can foresee is just the tip of the iceberg: under the surging agricultural tide, "hidden reefs" are everywhere, and if you are not careful, you will be doomed. This article will reveal eight "dead ends" that agricultural enterprises must avoid in the next five years. Perhaps you are in the "dead end".

1. Heavy assets and heavy liabilities: dragged to death by debt due to capacity expansion

Agricultural enterprises are accustomed to the asset-heavy model: many listed or proposed listed enterprises spend most of their funds on building factories, expanding bases and purchasing equipment; Once some small and medium-sized enterprises make money or have difficulty in financing, they also immediately expand their scale and capacity. However, they have ignored the problems of overcapacity, repetitive construction and serious homogenization that have occurred in the whole industry, and are actually running into a "dead end" at a fast pace.

In January this year, some media reported that Shandong Tulao Mao Animal Husbandry urgently needed funds to expand its scale, and the bank loan was difficult, so it had to borrow more than 2.6 million from the private sector. Now it has been dragged into the situation of auction plant and office building by this loan; Another enterprise, Ruite Farming and Animal Husbandry, also borrowed from the private sector because it could not borrow money from the bank when it expanded its scale. Its liabilities accumulated to more than 10 million yuan. Its head chose to "run" under the pressure of funds.

In the past two years, agricultural enterprises have been unable to continue their operations. Auction plants and even the heads of enterprises have run away from time to time. As the main source of funds for agricultural enterprises, bank loans have been difficult to lend. With the increase of "bad debts", the threshold is becoming higher and higher, and some have even closed the channel. Therefore, when enterprises need funds for development, they will also turn to private lending, and a large number of asset-heavy and debt-heavy enterprises are born. It is not difficult to guess the outcome of this type of enterprise: it is dragged down or even dragged to death by debt.

2. Superstition of the whole industrial chain: make the whole industrial chain into a "bracelet" and "shackle"

Food is becoming more and more unsafe, and consumers are a little "talking about food color change". Therefore, in order to occupy the consumer highland, many enterprises have set their sights on the whole industrial chain model, claiming to control the whole process from the field to the table, from raw materials to commodities.

However, the whole industry chain model looks beautiful, but it is not what all enterprises can do. It can be said that 95% of enterprises are not suitable for the whole industry chain! The whole industry chain of COFCO is crying out loud, but the profits are very low only because the stall is large; New Hope also said that it would take the road of full industrialization, but later it had to adjust and put more emphasis on specialization. Small and medium-sized enterprises can imagine that these large enterprises feel very difficult to do.

To build the whole industrial chain, first of all, you should have the corresponding resources, secondly, you should have long-term accumulation, and finally you should have the ability to control the operation. If you want to be fat at one bite, you will break your stomach instead of being fat. The whole industrial chain is not only useless, but will dilute the scattered resources, even drag down the main business with original advantages, and become the "bracelet" and "shackle" of its own development.

In fact, it is the whole industry chain investment (your capital is already limited) that will drag down SMEs, rather than the whole industry chain thinking, or supply chain awareness. On the contrary, enterprises should have this kind of thinking, because no matter where your enterprise is in the supply chain, in order to achieve the best products, you must control the entire supply chain. Therefore, you need to cooperate with upstream and downstream competitive enterprises, strengthen your core competitive advantages, and expand your voice in the whole supply chain, which is the "whole industry chain" that enterprises should pursue.

3. Blind cross-border type: it is impossible to see the difficulty of cross-border and the high investment

Why can Yunnan Baiyao succeed in making toothpaste? This is based on the gene of "Yunnan Baiyao" - "hemostasis and anti-inflammatory". It is natural to extend this gene to toothpaste, and it is connected very well. Therefore, the promotion cost, trust and acceptance time cost are reduced! However, Yunnan Baiyao's Yangyuanqing shampoo, facial mask, Qiancaotang bath gel and other products are struggling! Why? The value gene of "hemostasis and anti-inflammatory" cannot be relied on. Why didn't Wahaha succeed in making children's clothes and shopping malls? The reason is the same: Wahaha's existing gene - core competitiveness does not support or connect cross-border business!

The layman cross-border agriculture will also encounter genetic problems. Some people may say that Lenovo's cross-border agriculture from PC business is not exactly reshaping its own genes? Why can't I? The author has to say, how many enterprises in China are as large as Lenovo? Large size means large investment. Even if we take a step back, Lenovo has more advantages than other enterprises in addition to its large investment in agriculture: with the help of economists such as Zhou Qiren to do the top-level design, establish the Jiawo Group and operate independently, and have a special leader, Chen Shaopeng, who knows more about enterprise and enterprise management than many Chinese enterprises... Even so, Lenovo has invested 1 billion yuan in fruit business and will continue to invest 2-3 billion yuan, He said there would be no big profit in 10 years.

When we look at Ding Lei's pigs and Wanda's vegetables, we also reflect the difficulty of crossing borders and the deep-rooted nature of genes. Since 2009, few people have seen Ding Lei's pigs. NetEase has clearly stated that "we have overestimated ourselves and the problems faced in pig breeding. Agriculture is really a new field for NetEase"; It has been three or four years since Wanda began to grow vegetables. It seems that there is no news of Wanda in the Jianghu.

Agriculture is not Tang Seng's meat. Anyone can eat it. Due to the existence of genes and the limitations of enterprises' own conditions, enterprises that want to cross border agriculture need to make adequate preparations: psychological preparation for long-term investment; Adequate financial preparation; The preparation of top-level design, development path planning, resources and team allocation cannot be based on imagination alone, nor can old experience be copied into new fields.

Those enterprises (especially small and medium-sized enterprises) whose original core competitiveness is not connected with agriculture at all, have not figured out the development mode and path, and have blindly crossed the border, if they still hold the mentality of surviving by chance and do not want to change, they will surely die because of the difficulty and high investment in crossing the border.

4. Multiple children and multiple grandchildren: the more products, the faster they die

Whether there are core star products to break through the market has a direct impact on the rise and fall of enterprises and the future. According to statistics, among the top 500 enterprises in the world, 140 enterprises, accounting for 28%, account for more than 95% of the total sales; 194 leading products accounted for 70% - 95% of the total sales, accounting for 38.8%; 146 related products accounted for 70% of the total sales, accounting for 29.2%; And unrelated diversified enterprises are rare. The more products, the better is obviously a huge mistake.

After contacting a large number of domestic agricultural industrialization enterprises, Fulai found a common rule: the smaller the enterprise, the more ideas; The lower the output value, the more products, and the more trademarks, the more brands. Many enterprises may have less than one hundred million, but there are five or six trademarks in the market, which are also called "many children and many blessings", and try to seize the market as much as possible.

The author has always advocated that big is small and small is big; Fast is slow, and slow is fast. "More children and more grandchildren" is definitely not equal to "eugenics". It's a pity that many enterprises can't understand this dialectical logic and still adhere to the product idea of "sprinkle pepper noodles everywhere". You may never see their shadow after five years.

5. There are customers who don't use the house type: the ladder is removed by the "customer", but the "user" can't be reached

Many enterprises in the agricultural field are raw materials, such as honeysuckle planting enterprises, which provide raw materials for Wang Laoji, Jiaduobao and other herbal tea enterprises; Potato planting enterprises provide raw materials for potato chip enterprises such as Leshi and Shanghao. In addition, there are some primary processing B2B enterprises and some export-oriented enterprises. These enterprises have one thing in common: they do not directly face users - consumers, but only deal with customers.

However, with the upgrading of food safety issues, and due to the control of the entire industrial chain, from raw material planting to initial product processing, "customer" enterprises began to extend to the upstream of the industrial chain: Leshi has established potato planting bases in Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Guangxi and other places; I think you have built 8000 mu of raw material base, of which 6000 mu are in Xinjiang; Jiaduobao also began to build a raw material base; Even e-commerce brands such as Three Squirrels are working upstream to control the source of products.

When "customers" start to grab your business, you become without customers, and you don't have the experience and ability to face users directly. Can the business be maintained? It's difficult. Even if the "customer" has not grabbed your business for the time being, under the increasingly fierce market competition, under the pressure of cost, the customer will also choose a cheaper supplier. At this time, you will face the fate of being eliminated at any time.

Some enterprises have realized the crisis, but either the determination and courage to change are not strong enough, or they move slowly or even stop. If they go on like this, they will inevitably die.

6. Destroyed by "nuclear submarine": invisible to the enemy

The sad way to die may be to die in a murky way. Even the opponent's tactics and routines are not clear.

Now, dear agricultural enterprises, your competitors are very complex.

Golden arowana has not only made edible oil but also developed into the rice flour business. The original rice flour enterprise is easily reduced to "small fish"; Shuanghui has begun to expand its product structure and acquire Australian beef processing enterprises, which has a predictable impact on domestic beef enterprises; Even Hershey, which focuses on chocolate, has just acquired a beef jerky enterprise, which may have an impact on the original domestic enterprises in the future.

There is also a giant like Lenovo: with strong modern capital, concept, team and management level, it is committed to the industrialization of agricultural products such as blueberries, kiwi fruit and tea. While promoting the progress of the industry, it will also be inevitable to "hurt" a large area of the same kind. Evergrande's agricultural development also belongs to this category, and its impact cannot be ignored.

In addition, the No. 1 document in 2015 clearly proposes to deepen the reform of the two major systems of agricultural reclamation and supply and marketing. As we all know, these two systems have a large number of agricultural resources. Once the reform is deepened, they will further release market competitiveness and pose a threat to other agricultural enterprises.

In addition to strong domestic rivals, many of them are also scattered abroad: the implementation of the "the Belt and Road" strategy will bring agricultural products from many countries around the world to China; The signing of China-Australia Free Trade Agreement and other agreements is conducive to the export of Australian beef and other foreign products to China. These will obviously have an impact on domestic enterprises.

These opponents are like "nuclear submarines" sunk under the sea. If you can't understand their moves and routines, once they launch an attack, you will have no strength to fight back.

7. Regional public brand: "lingering" in others' troubled waters

Regional public brand means that the trademark owner does not belong to a certain enterprise, but belongs to a local government or industry association. In the early stage of its establishment, such a brand was built with the help of government or industry resources. Everyone invested heavily, enthusiasm was high, and effectiveness was relatively fast. However, such a brand also had inherent difficulties: the day when the brand was built and effective was the time when the problem occurred. The "hot" Yangcheng Lake hairy crab in recent years is a good example.

The brand "Yangcheng Lake" was registered as a trademark by the Suzhou Crab Industry Association and is the actual owner of the trademark. Crab farmers are scattered farmers. The association does not operate specifically. The brand owner and product operator are actually in a split state. Every year, the authentic Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs have not been caught yet, and the fake Yangcheng Lake hairy crabs have been sold in major supermarkets. The number of fake crabs is more than 5 to 10 times that of real crabs. Even with more legal means, the use of "Yangcheng Lake" cannot be blocked, because such a generic name enterprise can not monopolize it.

Another regional public brand, Wuchang Rice, is also plagued by problems: after the country became famous, counterfeiters continued to be exposed by the media, and the industry was fully injured. Obviously, this is not the original intention of brand, let alone the success of brand operation.

At present, there are still many enterprises that do not fully understand the necessity and urgency of building their own brands. They cling to the public brand, which has no "root", and inevitably make a wedding dress for those who fish in troubled waters. After several injuries, these enterprises may also be discouraged and discouraged.

8. Policy investment model: it is difficult to continue to "make a profit" by ignoring market rules

In recent years, the state has increased its support for agriculture in a very direct way - compared with real estate, energy and other industries, the state's agricultural subsidies for agriculture are real gold and silver directly paid to the account. Because it is real gold and silver, it has become the "Tang Monk meat" of a group of opportunists. Everyone wants to bite it.

In order to get subsidies, some enterprises even make customized application plans. It is conceivable that enterprises that rush to launch agricultural projects in order to obtain the funds for benefiting farmers do not start from market demand and lack the motivation for serious management. Such enterprises will soon encounter development problems.

More importantly, the central government has recognized that the use of agricultural subsidies is too extensive - no return, no tracking, lack of supervision, and low efficiency. Therefore, in the No. 1 central document of 2014, it has clearly proposed that "we should improve the accuracy and directivity of agricultural subsidies". In this way, those enterprises that focus on policies, "catch the mayor" and ignore management and operation will not last long.

Author: Lou Xiangpeng, source: Shennong Island, ID: sndfly